Feb 3, 20233 min read

Negotiating Peace in Ukraine & the Middle East

Updated on Nov 11, 2023 - Originally created on May 14, 2022

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This post was originally written before the latest war started in the Middle East. A worldwide negotiation as proposed below is now all the more urgent. A stop to both wars could be negotiated simultaneously. A powerful computer doesn't care how complex the case is.

Efforts for a 2022 Christmas Truce mostly failed but we keep hoping for a Better-Late-Than-Never Truce. We don't need to wait for next Christmas. Sooner or later, talks will begin, if disaster can be averted. The more that can be done now to prepare for a diplomatic solution the better. And preparations might increase the probability of a better outcome. That's what we want to do, scaling up our efforts documented below.

The first step is to compile all the possible ideas for peace into one comprehensive document. We call that a Single Negotiating Framework (SNF). The SNF documents everything that the parties already agree on and lays out those issues that are still to be worked out, without prescribing specific solutions. Instead, every issue is assigned a negotiating range. To keep everyone at the table, it's important to include even the so-called non-negotiable issues. Watch the videos linked below for further details on the Smartsettle process.

In parallel, trust needs to be rebuilt. Ideas are

renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative
exchanging prisoners
embracing Turkey and/or China as mediators or even parties at the table
a BLTN ceasefire ASAP
letters to the UN and to the Pope

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The future of mankind will be determined by whether nations learn to settle their differences peacefully (Jack F. Matlock Jr., 17 Oct 2022). Can they do that in Ukraine? ChatGPT seems to think so, but meanwhile, every day’s delay brings more death and destruction.

It wouldn't need to be that way.

The Smartsettle team and friends (including a group of Rotarians) have created a simulation illustrating a process that could lead to peace. Some individuals and other groups that are cheering us on are listed at the bottom of this article. There are also many more.

The following schematic illustrates the Smartsettle process assuming a multiparty negotiation.

Each of the parties depicted here are countries or groups of countries. The China and India groups might include other nuclear armed countries and those aspiring to be. We expect that each party would include representatives of varied interests within that party (church, indigenous, women, youth, environmental, positive peace, etc.). However, it would also be possible for special interest groups to be separate parties, which we've depicted by "Others".

The goal of the process, a comprehensive peace treaty between all the parties, is determined by the Single Negotiating Framework, which in turn may be constructed with the assistance of wise mediators plus AI. Smartsettle has modelled a simplified version of the problem for only two parties and simulated the final stage of the process depicted above. The results are documented with the following two videos (Watch the simulation from the Ukrainian POV first if you are new to Smartsettle Infinity).

Ukraine Point of View (14 min)
- As presented live at the 21st International ODR Forum in Dublin
Russia Point of View (7.5 min)
- Short version focusing on the simulation

What we are attempting to demonstrate with the above videos is not a particular outcome, but a process that can harvest and fairly distribute significant hidden value. The videos show how Smartsettle can quickly help collaborative parties overcome obstacles and lead them to an outcome that maximizes the satisfaction of all the parties - in this case, reach a solution leading to peaceful co-existence.

Our hypothetical negotiation model includes sixteen issues. Some were based on what we read in scholarly articles about the negotiations. Others were inspired by the Smartsettle team and friends. The party preferences were modelled based on assumptions informed by information found on the Internet in May. Much of that information including more recent information is chronicled on this page (including a number considering nuclear diplomacy).

Following are individuals, groups and organizations that have shown interest in Smartsettle's initiative. Their appearance here does not necessarily imply that we agree on everything but we hold in common the overall goal of peace in Ukraine. Organizations listed below are for identification purposes only, and do not imply their endorsement.